UK housing market 2018

Halifax December data claim the housing prices rose 1.3 per cent in the three months through December. Likewise, the report claims the prices rose unexpectedly in two years, in the last month, at one of the fastest rates, despite, Brexit volatility. 

Halifax forecasts for 2019 claim the UK property growth rate was between 2 to 4 per cent, which will be stronger than in 2018 but will remain subdued. It is assumed the growth may be sluggish amidst weak wage growth. Many factors influence growth, such as Brexit, economic uncertainties and inflation. 

Halifax says the average cost of homes in Britain is £229,729, although the prices vary from region to region. The prices have fallen in London and South East regions, while prices grew in the North West and Midlands. 

Foreign Investment in London - JLL 2019 Forecasts

JLL figures state that foreign investors made 79 per cent of Central London acquisitions in 2018, and the UK is expected to remain the key destination for global investors in 2019. JLL claims the total investment value will be around £55 billion, while more investors are targeting prime London real estate.

JLL's head of UK research, Jon Neale, said "No-deal Brexit is unlikely, although uncertainty persists. There may be delays and complications in decision making." However, he expects the Pound to strengthen after the deal.

The UK had one of the strongest cross-border inflows in 2018, and JLL forecasts the growth to be 1.7 per cent in 2019, assuming the deal is achieved. In 2018, the growth was 1.3 per cent.  

Other Reports 

The nationwide report claims a growth of 0.5 per cent in December, which is the lowest annual growth rate since 2013. In addition, the report states that 2018 was one of the worst years since 2013, where consumers remained restrained as the business, manufacturing, and construction remained slow.
 
House prices increased, on average, by 0.5 per cents, in the last year as per NBS data. However, household confidence has been low since 2013, when policymakers insist on increasing domestic inflationary pressures. 

Although new homes sale grew in other parts of the country, Savills claimed the total value of housing stock was £7.29 trillion in 2018, where most gains came from regions other than London. Its report states - Wales reported the biggest gains in value, where the value increased by 6.3 per cent in 2018. The house's value in East Midlands grew 6.2 per cent, and the West Midland home price grew 6.1 per cent. 

Lowering the Housing Stock 

Growth in construction and manufacturing slowed by 0.1 per cent in Q4 2018 (as per HIS Markit data). Retail spending was low due to uncertainties over policy changes by the Bank of England, which may announce interest rates and inflation decisions, creating further doubts, particularly where the exit itself is irresolute and affected by trade barriers. As a result, the Pound value dropped, and inflation continued to grow. 

Recent data by the Resolution Foundation reported the ratio between stock and family units is the lowest since 1991 when only 845 homes were available for 1000 families. In 1998, the ratio was 867 and 825 in 2016. 

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